June  ANTELOPE   VALLEY   REPORT         2008

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Author’s Antelope Valley Trip Report

Antelope Valley, the Promise Land ====================================================== 

June’s High Lights:

·        Author’s Corner—My Antelope Valley Trip

·        AV Real Estate in June

Author’s Corner – My Antelope Valley Trip

I visited Antelope Valley last week. This was my first time in 2008. It has been over 7 months since my last visit in 2007. During this visit I saw a lot of changes. The main changes are the commercial developments and the infrastructure improvements for the roads, electricity, water, sewage systems. I saw that many commercial buildings have been built, and many roads have been widen. The Highway 138 southern route has been expanded to 2 lanes each side. Even though, the traffic was still very heavy. All of those indicate the growth of the Antelope Valley.

More Jobs in Antelope Valley

I met a lady in Antelope Valley who lives in Santa Clarita. She told me she drives to Antelope Valley to work every day because she likes the job offer, and she likes the Antelope Valley clean air. She told me more and more people move to Antelope Valley because the job market is growing. See the Antelope Valley News on June 16th below regarding the business growth in Fax Field.

More Real Estate Agents Joint the AV Realtor Board

To help my team members know more about Antelope Valley, I stopped by Antelope Valley Realtor Board to purchase AV maps. I was surprised that the Board only has less than 250 sets of the AV Realtor map available that day. Edy Ghazarosian, the MLS Member Service Assistant of Great Antelope Valley Associate of Realtor (GAVAR) told me that more new realtors have joined the board in 2008 than in 2007. She also told me many of the real estate brokers who live in other States who use the GAVAR MLS services. Those brokers help their investors to purchase AV real estate from other States. Antelope Valley becomes more and more popular for the investors.

I told Edy that I personally have helped 2 investors from China to purchase land since earlier this year. I believe that there are thousands of investors from all over the World who have purchased real estate in Antelope Valley.

More Homes Have Been Built

My first parcel that I purchased in 2001 and sold in 2004 is building track homes now. The location is on 20th East Street and Avenue H8. The builder is Frontier. 

I went to Lancaster City Hall during this trip, and found out that the Lancaster Subdivision Map has more subdivisions approved to be developed. To view the latest version of the Lancaster Subdivision Map, please go to 

http://www.cityoflancasterca.org/Modules/ShowDocument.aspx?documentid=5604

Due to limited time, I was unable to stop by Palmdale City Hall. But I did find out the latest Palmdale Development Maps through the Palmdale City website. To view all the development related maps, please go to

http://www.cityofpalmdale.org/departments/traffic/maps/maps.asp

In the past 8 years, Land Banking has enriched me, and I will continue my success. Antelope Valley, the POMISE LAND!!!

Antelope Valley News  

June 2- The long awaited AV Veterans Home, located in Lancaster at the NWC of 30^th St West & Ave I, looks like it will be completed in early 2009.  Presently, the facility, located on 22 acres, is in the framing stage.  Sixty veterans will make this their new home, in 2 and 3 bedroom suites.  The facility is designed for veterans that are generally active, but need help with two or more of their daily activities.  The facility will also offer adult day health care for those vets that live in their own home.  No veteran is denied admission due to lack of income.

Residency will cost veterans 47.5% of their income or $1,200, whichever is less.  This project was first originated in 1991 and has been a “political football”, until 2002 when a compromise was reached that allowed Veteran’s homes to be built in Los Angeles, Lancaster, and in Ventura County all at the same time.  Seventy veterans have filed “statements of intent to apply” for residency at the new Vets Home. 

June 14^th- Here are some Mojave demographics that recently appeared in our local newspaper. Population- 3,850, males- 50.55%, females- 49.45%, homeowners- 53%, avg household income- $39,124, high school grads- 35%, college grads- 4%, some college, no degrees- 25% . The Mojave Airport is home to some 57 companies, some of which relate to future commercial space travel. There are some 2,000 workers at Mojave Airport, of which, Scaled Composites is its most famous tenant. Scaled Composites, founded by Burt Rutan, launched SpaceShipOne into orbit 3 times in 2004.  The company is expected to reveal SpaceShipTwo in 2009 that will carry commercial passengers into space.  The airport also houses the National Test Pilot school, the only civilian test pilot school in the country.  XCOR, a builder of rocket power racing airplanes and rocket thrusters for NASA, is also a tenant at Mojave Airport.  Other tenants include Progressive Rail, which refurbishes train wheels and axles for several railroads, UPS, Fiberset, and a number of small businesses.  West of Mojave, on Oak Creek Road, Portland Cement employs about 150. Mojave Airport totals some 3,300 acres, but at present occupies about 500 acres in two areas.

June 16^th- The Fox Field Business Park, located at 45^th St West and Ave G, has landed two more businesses. McLain Holdings Group, a multifaceted entertainment service company and Me Gusta Gourmet, a Mexican food maker have purchased units in the business park.  McLain Holdings purchased a 14,659 sq ft facility for $1.28M.  Me Gusta Gourmet bought a 6,448 sq ft unit for 761,000.  In phase one of this project, only two units are left, each 8,000 sq ft.  However, there will be a phase 2 and that will include 10 additional free standing buildings, ranging in size from 5,000 to 100,000 sq feet.  The developer of the Fox Field Business Park is Larwin Investment Co.  In the southern Cal area, Larwin has built and sold over 3M sq ft of industrial property.

June 16^th- Beacon Solar LLC has applied to the state of California to construct and operate a solar plant on 2,000 acres 4 miles NW of California City.  The plant will cost $1B and produce 250 megawatts of electricity. The facility will use curved mirrors to capture and reflect sunlight on a series of tubes filled with liquid.  As the liquid in the tubes is heated, it in turn will power a turbine that will produce the electricity.  Beacon says that it is a very efficient system.  If Beacon’s application is approved, construction would begin in 2009 and be operable by 2011.  While California City citizens are in favor of the project, concerns have been raised as to the amount of water required to cool the system, as the source of that water will be CC underground aquifer. Beacon says that they would need 1,600 acre feet of water per year for their system.  Beacon officials say that their project is early on, the top of the first inning.  The proposed site for the solar plant is not too far from the Honda Test Track, which has been there since 1990.

June 17^th- work begins on the new Lancaster branch of Mojave Desert Bank.  The bank already has branches in Mojave, California City, Ridgecrest, and Helendale and has been in operation for 16 years.  The Lancaster move is a major expansion for the bank, as Lancaster’s population exceeds all four of its existing locations put together.  The new site will be located on 20^th St West, near Ave J-12, by the post office, and will be 6,300 sq feet in size.  With takeovers and mergers the last 25 years, the bank’s goal is to bring back local banking to the AV.  With a local community bank, the borrower is talking to people who can actually make a lending decision and are not burdened by a loan committee outside of the AV.  Community banks. Being more knowledgeable about their area, can also be more flexible.

June 18^th-  United Airlines, the sole carrier servicing Palmdale Airport, in an effort to attract more passengers, announces they will double its flights to SF, offering more convenient flight times as well.  Beginning on Sept 3^rd, United will offer two morning, one afternoon, and one evening flight to San Francisco.  Also, in what can only be construed as a cost cutting measure, United will discontinue use of their 50 seat jets in favor of 30 seat Embraer 120 Brasilia turboprop planes.  The turboprop burns about 1/3 less fuel which is the number 1 operating cost for airlines.  Because the turboprop is a bit slower, cruising at 352mph, the flight to SF will take 92 minutes, or 23 minutes longer vs the jet plane.  The expanded schedule change expands the number of connection flights (in SF) to 113 from the previous schedule of 68.  Palmdale Airport reopened in June of 2007 with United Airlines.  The City of Palmdale has applied through the Dept of Transportation for a second grant to help underwrite United, which is currently operating the routes at a loss.  The move to more flights and lower cost planes is to try and find the  right mix that gives United the best chance at profitability.  Officials view the request for a 2^nd grant as a “long shot” as the Dept of Transportation has never given two grants to the same airport in the past.  With many military and govt employees in the AV area, United has applied to have Palmdale participate in the govt’s discounted air service program.  This would give United more passengers, albeit at lower fares, but none the less a vast improvement over an  empty seat.  United’s current twice a day flights to SF will continue through Sept 2^nd, with the new schedule of 4 flights per day kicking in next day, Sept 3^rd.  One more idea that might expand ridership would be additional routes, one or two more, Phoenix and or Denver.  This is not being publicly discussed, but behind closed doors, it must be.  It is the only card left in the deck to play.  Eventually, the future of Palmdale Airport comes down to one thing:  use it or lose it.

June 27^th- It is reported, that an Irvine based ethanol company will get approval to build a plant in the north Lancaster area.  BlueFire Ethanol hopes to locate just outside Lancaster’s border at 580 East Ave F, an address ½ way between Division St and 10^th St East.  BlueFire will NOT use corn or any other food source to produce it’s ethanol.  They will use construction waste, stuff that builders throw away, as their basic material.

This business plan makes their product very profitable without putting price pressures on food.  BlueFire essentially makes fuel out of another one’s trash & garbage.  Being located outside of the city limits, BlueFire will have their permit issued by Los Angeles County.  The hearing is set for July 23^rd and the word is, it will be a go.  The plant, located on 10 acres and at a cost of $30M, will be located next to Waste Management’s landfill.  BlueFire’s fuel will be provided by commercial landscapers and private haulers who would be headed in their direction anyway, to dump at Waste Management.  Instead of paying dumping fees to Waste Management, private haulers can be paid for their load, or at the very least, avoid dumping fees.  BlueFire’s plant, as it is planned, will take in 200 tons of waste per day and produce 3.2M gallons of ethanol per year.  BlueFire officials say, that if approved this summer, their plant could be operating by the summer of 2009.  It will employ 30 people.

Defense & Aerospace News  

 None this month. 

AV Existing Home Sales Data - As of June 30, 2008  

(source:  AV MLS)

- Existing Homes sold year to date:  2071

- Existing homes projected to sell this year based on current sales pace: 3,100

- Existing median home price in 2008 : $ 245,836

- Existing median home price increase in 2008  vs. 2007 :  - 19%

2007 - Existing homes sold from 1/1/07 to 12/31/07: 3,362

2007 – Existing median home price in 2007: $$ 304,000

2006 - Existing homes sold from 1/1/06 to 12/31/06 : 6,839

2006 – Existing median home price in 2006 : $330,000

2005 - Existing homes sold from 1/1/05 to 12/31/05 : 7,554

2005 – Existing median home price in 2005  : $293,000

Antelope Valley New Home Sales Data - as of  June 15th, 2008 

(source:  The New Housing Monitor, a Hanley Report)

-New homes sold year to date- 607                                                         

-New homes sold since last month, 93

-New homes selling per day in 2007-  4.46 (vs last month’s 3.69)

-New homes projected to sell this year at current sales pace- 1,214

-New home  sales, year to date vs. same period last year (- 52%)

-Number of open subdivisions with sales in 2008- 62

2007 - total of all new homes sold- 1,720

2006 - total of all new homes sold- 2,584

2005 - total of all new homes sold- 4,579

2004 - total of all new homes sold- 2,503

2003 - total of all new homes sold- 1,820  

2002-  total of all new homes sold- 1,162

1990-  total of all new homes sold- 4,900 +    

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Antelope Valley Land Market

In June:

- the mean (average) selling price on a piece of land was….. $217,017

- the median (middle) price on a piece of land was…….….. $59,000

- the average days on the market………………………..……..236 

Demand numbers in perspective:   

Land sales year to date-    275                                                           

Land sales projected for 2008- 552  

Land sales in all of 2007- 1,637              

Land sales in all of 2006- 2,648 

Land sales in all of 2005- 3,376

Land sales in all of 2004- 2,372   

Land sales in all of 2003- 1,240

Land sales in all of 2002-  679

Land sales in all of 2001-  407

Land sales in all of 2000-  307

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Average land sales (in 2008) per month-  46

Average land sales (in 2007) per month- 129

Average land sales (in 2006) per month- 221

Average land sales (in 2005) per month- 281

Average land sales (in 2004) per month- 198

Average land sales (in 2003) per month- 103

Average land sales (in 2002) per month-  56 

Average land sales (in 2001) per month-  34

Average land sales (in 2000) per month-  26

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LAND SALES ACTIVITY- By Antelope Valley Multiple Listing

                    Land Sales                                                                        Land         

                      Escrows                                                                         Escrows    

                      Opened                                                              closed         

2000 Total    307                                                                                     260                         

2001 Total    407                                                                                     315

2002 Total    679                                                                                     482

2003 Total  1,240                                                                                    890

2004 Total 2, 372                                                                                   1,658

2005 Total 3,376                                                                                    2,572

2006 Total 2,989                                                                                   2,118

2007 Total 1,773                                                                                     1,401  

2008 6 Months total   270                                                                        265